Winx v Black Caviar: We call race between legends that never was

• Video
• Image

Winx wows them again0:44

Horse Racing: Champion mare Winx has overcome the mud at a heavy Rosehill track to make it 16 straight, taking out the $1million George Ryder Stakes.

• March 18th 2017
• 15 days ago
• /video/video.news.com.au/Sport/Horse Racing/

Glen Boss returns to scale on Makybe Diva after winning a third 2005 Melbourne Cup.

IS Winx, racing’s new phenomenon, better than the undefeated, incomparable Black Caviar?

The question is being asked more often now the longer Winx extends her celebrated winning streak.

Winx will aim for her 17th consecutive win when she lines up as hot favourite for the $4 million Longines Queen Elizabeth Stakes (2000m) at Royal Randwick next Saturday.

Chris Waller’s super mare has been unbeatable for two years now and with every win she is edging closer to Black Caviar’s extraordinary record of 25 wins.

Winx has forged her reputation primarily at a distance range of 1600m to 2000m while Black Caviar was a sprint sensation who only ever raced beyond 1200m once in her career.

So,when my Sunday Telegraph Editor asked me to write about a hypothetical clash between Winx and Black Caviar, and some of the other great mares of the last 50 years or so, it felt __like mission impossible.

Which legend would win if they raced against each other?Source:The Daily Telegraph

Comparing champions of any sport over different eras is always contentious.

There has been many arguments among sporting enthusiasts about who is the better footballer. Is Andrew Johns the greatest of all time or has Johnathon Thurston usurped him? How do they compare them with past champions __like Clive Churchill, Johnny Raper, Reg Gasnier, Bob Fulton and Wally Lewis?

Who is Test cricket’s best bowler – Dennis Lillee or Shane Warne? Is Usain Bolt the greatest Olympian of them all, or is it Michael Phelps? Is Roger Federer a better tennis player than Rod Laver? How do you compare golfing greats Jack Nicklaus and Tiger Woods? On the racetrack, is our own Phar Lap better than America’s superhorse Secretariat?

The bottom line is there is no right or wrong answer – but the boss still wanted the story.

I turned to some of the best form analysts in the business, Gary Crispe, Dominic Beirne and Rob Waterhouse for their views to see if I could find a consensus.

I selected the 12 best race mares to have graced the Australian turf since 1960, lining them up at level weights at Royal Randwick over 1400m, a distance each of the mares had won at a high level. Black Caviar’s only race at 1400m was the 2012 C.F. Orr Stakes and predictably she scored effortlessly.

Black Caviar and Winx were opposed to true champions like Sunline, Makybe Diva, More Joyous, Atlantic Jewel, Let’s Elope, Emancipation, Maybe Mahal, Surround, Dual Choice and Wenona Girl

So, who wins the “Greatest Mares Race Never Run?”

Not surprisingly, opinions varied although it was a determined this was a match between Black Caviar and Winx.

Would Black Caviar have too much speed for Winx, or would the latter be too strong at the end of 1400m.

Crispe felt it was Black Caviar’s race – but only just.

“Black Caviar is rated by Timeform on 136, the equal highest rated filly or mare (with European champions Allez France and Habibti) in the history of Timeform dating back some 70 years,’’ Crispe said.

“In this phantom race, I believe Black Caviar would have been too strong for the current rising star of world racing Winx,- not by much, but enough to make it an exciting finish.’’

Crispe did concede Winx has steadily been closing the gap on Black Caviar’s lofty Timeform rating.

It was close but Black Caviar would have found a way.Source:The Daily Telegraph

“Winx is now rated on 134, she now sits just two pounds short of Black Caviar and is in elite global company,’’ Crispe said.

“The dual Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe winner Treve also reached a Timeform rating of 134 during her stellar career while 14-time Group 1 Goldikova was rated 133. Other champion world class mares include unbeaten French Arc winner Zarkava (133), US champion Zenyatta (129) and the Arc and King George winner Danedream (132).’’

Crispe said the great New Zealand mare, Sunline would be another length and a half away from Black Caviar and Winx.

“It is always difficult to line up horses from different eras of racing but Timeform has 70 years of experience in doing just that which allows us to make an accurate assessment of a phantom race like this,’’ he said.

However, not everyone agrees with Crispe and his Timeform ratings-predicted finish.

Beirne believes the result would depend on the track conditions – if it was a firm track, Black Caviar would be too fast but on a rain-affected surface, Winx would run her down.

“Black Caviar was only tested once beyond 1200m, in a slowly run 1400m race (Orr Stakes), wherein she ran the brilliant closing sectionals we saw her produce in sprint races,’’ Beirne said.

Glen Boss returns to scale on Makybe Diva after winning a third 2005 Melbourne Cup.Source:News Limited

“It’s reasonable to conclude her optimum distance range is 1000-1200m while Winx’s four ratings have been at 2040m-1500m, the latter being her most recent start.

“It is obvious that Black Caviar would win at 1200m and Winx would win at 1600m - but at what distance would the advantage transfer from the sprinter to the miler?

“I’d estimate that to be at about 1360m so mathematically, Winx might have the edge at 1400m.

“But since no horse has ever beaten Black Caviar, and since my overall rating of Black Caviar is still slightly higher than Winx, I’d suggest the only way to separate these two great mares at 1400m would be to introduce track conditions to the equation.

“Winx has produced three of her best four ratings on rain-affected tracks. Therefore, on a dry track Black Caviar would win at 1400m, on a wet track it is Winx.’’

Waterhouse had a similar read on the race’s likely outcome.

“At 1400m, the distance favours Winx, disadvantages Black Caviar and wipes out Makybe Diva and Let’s Elope,’’ Waterhouse said.

“If this was a 1200m race, Black Caviar would be odds-on favourite.

“But this is1400m and given Randwick is always soft, it again helps Winx.’’

Originally published as Who wins race that will never be?